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Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Nokia's Chinese experiences and their lesson

An interesting article on Seeking Alpha by Shaun Rein (of China Market Research Group) caught my attention. It analyses Nokia's difficulties in China, and illustrates some important points regarding the Chinese market:
"Nokia made the mistake of not understanding that the Chinese are no longer price sensitive for many products, and often buy products to show off...after a house or car, the mobile phone is the most prized possession for a majority of consumers. For many Chinese who cannot afford a house or a nice car, the mobile phone becomes the status symbol to show off"
According to the article, the battle is far from being over:
  1.  Nokia has a much better distribution network, and this is still major advantage over Apple, as the recent fraudulent-Apple-store affair teaches us. 
  2. The turnover frequency of Smart phones in China is overwhelming: "younger, upper middle class Chinese consumers change their mobile phones every nine to twelve months...These consumers are also not particularly brand loyal when buying phones. They look for the latest, hottest phone that will confer status on them, and many still remember Nokia’s status as king from just three years ago. This gives Nokia an opportunity to roll out new phones in more areas before Apple is able to penetrate the market."
    Even if middle class and lower economic class consumers cannot afford changing their smart phones every year, they will probably still change them in the fastest frequency possible. In Israel, for example, mobile-operators, who also serve as smart phone distributors, try to dictate a changing rate of 18-24 months.   
  3. Despite my recent admission in my mistaken analysis of Apple's current competitive edge, I still believe that Apple does have that tragic hero streak of making a fundamental mistake just when it is in the lead, and that such a mistake will take place in the coming 2 to 4 years (assuming it has not been made yet, without public recognition).  This of course does not mean Nokia will prevail. There are enough Android-based players competing for the Chinese holy grail, who might use Apple's theoretically coming mistake for their own maximization of market share... 
Summing up, we can deduce some wider lessons, which I believe apply to consumers all over the globe:
  1. Smart phones are not your regular Information commodity. They are a status marker (or maybe even Status maker?)
  2. The emotional-social role of smart phones changes consumer behavior. Consumers are much less price-sensitive than they used to be in the traditional PC/laptop days. This is probably also a strong incentive for consumers to replace their smart phones again and again.
  3. lessons 1&2 probably have some bearing on other modern mobile gadgets, like the tablets. 

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